Decisions, Decisions

Dimity is level 48 now and it won’t be long until she hits Outland.  I’m considering making a Sageblade for her as my blacksmith got the pattern out of a locked box a few months ago.  The only sword of a similar level is Spellfire Longsword which drops in Slave Pens.  According to Wowhead it has an 18% drop rate.  I may get lucky and get it on my first run or I may have to run the instance 10 times to get it.  I have the most of the mats for the Sageblade so should I make the crafted sword or keep my fingers crossed for the drop in Slave Pens?  Answers on a post card please.